The Mormon Factor predicts Mitt Romney will win California tomorrow, on Super Tuesday. As you can see, I have posted todays Real Clear Politics.com polling average and polls. I am blogging to show that Romney is predicted to lose the California primary tomorrow. However, I think the reason Romney will win tomorrow is because of the "Mormon Factor".Where being Mormon has hurt Romney in the East Coast Primaries, the "Mormon Factor" has helped him as he has moved toward western states, such as Nevada (which was credited to Romney because of the "Mormon Factor"). On the same side, I would also place Romney in that category when it comes to the votes in Wyoming since it is right next to Utah and Idaho. For many, California, being on the left coast, is not seen as a Mormon strong hold. However, in a Republican Primary, there is definitely a "Mormon Factor" in California. As you can see, I have listed my numbers below with my predictions.
California:
1. 750,000 Mormons in California.
2. 1/3 of them are under 18, so we have 495,000 left over
3. 75% are Conservative, so we have 375,000 left over
4. 75% of the Conservatives will vote for Romney, leaves 278,437 (others for McCain, Ron Paul)
6. 65% of whom will actually turn out to vote, that leaves 180,984 votes for Romney.
In a national election, 180,984 votes would not normally mean much. However, in a tight Republican Primary, in California, it will make a big difference. In Nevada, the population is 8% Mormon. That eight percent, is actually 20% of the total vote in Nevada. Because of a strong civic duty, preached by the Mormon faith, Mormons vote at a much higher rate than the national average. I believe because of this, The "Mormon Factor" will push Mitt to a 5% win in California.
Devo
info@mormonfactor.com
